October Rises 9% as Budgets Skew Smaller

The November edition of the Sohonet Screen Production Index records new scripted production starts in October at 9% above October 2025 and 14% above September 2026, with the actual count coming in 3% below the figure projected in last month's report. For the year as a whole, the 2026 production count is projected 15% ahead of 2025 and 22% below the 2022 reference point. October's starts were weighted toward the smaller budget tiers.

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Fewer Tentpoles at the Top of the Slate

October recorded one XL start, Slow Horses (Apple), against four in August 2026. The S tier took 48% of October starts, up from 32% in August, while the M tier held at around 29%. On a six-month rolled basis, median production budget has fallen from $8.6M in April 2026 to $4.9M in October, and the 90th percentile from $52M to $38M, its lowest reading of 2026.

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Apple Output Reaches a Record High

Apple's Jan-Oct 2026 smoothed budget stands at $1.6bn, its highest level on record, 38% above Jan-Oct 2022 and more than triple the $521M of Jan-Oct 2025. That places Apple roughly level with Amazon ($1.67bn), on 34 production starts against 74 for Amazon and 111 for Netflix. The 2026 slate includes three XL productions: The Studio, Severance and Slow Horses.

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California Holds Share as Its Count Trails 2022

California took 36% of US smoothed budget in October and 42% across the year to date, the largest share of any US state. Its Jan-Oct production count sits at 71% of the 2022 baseline. On the same measure, Georgia stands at 49% and the US as a whole at 64%, while New York, at 123%, is the only tracked state above its 2022 level. Mean California production budget has risen from $16M in 2022 to $25M in 2026.

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The XL Pipeline Moves Into 2027

The confirmed 2026 XL count stands at 22, 15% below 2025 and 33% below 2022. The next three months carry a single XL start, the Jurassic World Rebirth sequel (NBCU) in January 2027. The calendar then fills: Avengers 6 (Disney) and The Rings of Power season 4 (Amazon) in February, the Stranger Things spinoff (Netflix) in March, and House of the Dragon season 4 (Warner), Fast & Furious 11 (NBCU), Helldivers (Sony) and Romulus 2 (Disney) in April. The UK holds the deepest forward XL pipeline, with Avengers 6, Bond 26 and the X-Men reboot all scheduled there.

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The Sohonet Screen Production Index tracks scripted, live-action productions entering principal photography each month from major studios and production companies across the US, UK, and Canada. A free two-page Snapshot is published monthly; the full Insight report, including regional breakdowns, studio analysis, and forward pipeline data, is available by subscription.

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