Screen Production Index: XL Slate Softens, Pipeline Holds

XL Slate Softens as the Wider Pipeline Holds

The August edition of the Sohonet Screen Production Index records new scripted production starts in July at 14% above the July 2025 level, in line with the year-on-year momentum seen through 2026. For the third consecutive month, the count came in below the value projected in last month’s report, this time by 8% and 11 productions, with several titles previously expected in July slipping into later months.
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XL Tentpoles Shift, Wider Slate Holds

The August cycle records a further tightening of the 2026 XL slate. With Untitled Stranger Things Spinoff and Wonka 2 moving into 2027 or out of the visible window, our confirmed XL count for 2026 now stands at 23, 15% below the 2025 total and 34% below the 2022 reference point. The broader L+ pool (Large and X-Large combined) tells a different story, holding at 102 productions, 15% ahead of 2025 and 84% of 2022. The pressure on 2026 is concentrated at the tentpole end rather than across the pipeline.
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New York Records an All-Time High

Within the US, New York secured 46% of domestic starts in July, an all-time high in our data and comfortably its strongest reading in more than three years. Year to date, the state now sits at 26% of US productions, up from 18% in 2025. California continues to lead year-to-date at 36% of US starts, but the tilt eastward is clear. New Jersey also had a strong July, with smoothed budget up 29% year-on-year, building on the +60% NJ posted in 2025 against its 2022 peak.
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NBCU Holds Its Line

At the studio level, NBCU’s smoothed budget was up 22% on July 2025, extending a steady post-strikes pattern rather than a spike. The month was driven by a mainstay slate of Law & Order and Chicago-branded episodics, with the Daniels’ Thasnagar the forward XL commitment carrying into August. The picture tracks NBCU’s strong theatrical performance through the period, anchored by Wicked 1 and 2 and Jurassic World Rebirth.
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Two New Data Views This Cycle

The August Insight report introduces two new analytical pages. The first sets a like-for-like read on pre- and post-strikes feature performance, showing the median revenue-to-budget multiple has moved from 1.08x pre-strikes to 1.52x post-strikes and the share of releases clearing a 2.5x breakeven line rising from 26% to 37%. The second traces where post-production work lands relative to where a production shot, with California operating as the anchor market and landing roughly 3.5x the volume of post work its own shoots originate.

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The Sohonet Screen Production Index tracks scripted, live-action productions entering principal photography each month from major studios and production companies across the US, UK, and Canada. A free two-page Snapshot is published monthly; the full Insight report, including regional breakdowns, studio analysis, and forward pipeline data, is available by subscription.

Learn more about the Screen Production Index →

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