September Softens, US Share Hits a Four-Year High

The October edition of the Sohonet Screen Production Index records new scripted production starts in September at 31% below the September 2025 level, with the actual count coming in 7% below the figure projected in last month's report. The headline softness overlays a stronger regional story: Q3 2026 saw the US take 39.8% of production starts, its largest quarterly share in our data since Q2 2022.

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The 2026 XL Slate Thins Further

Two of the largest 2026 commitments have moved into Q1 2027. Avengers 6 (Disney, UK), previously scheduled for August, now carries a January 2027 shoot start; Rush Hour 4 (Paramount/Skydance), previously September, has moved to the same month. Fourth Wing (Amazon, UK) has slipped to March 2027. The confirmed XL count for 2026 now stands at 22, 15% below 2025 and 35% below 2022. The broader L+ pool holds at 107 productions, 18% ahead of 2025 and 90% of 2022, so the thinning is concentrated at the XL end rather than across the slate.

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Only the UK Still Clears 2022

Three years on from the strikes, the UK is the only region whose smoothed production budget is still running above its 2022 reference point. Through the first nine months of each year, UK smoothed budget sits at 109% of 2022, against 85% for the US, 84% for Canada and 63% for Rest of World. UK share of regional smoothed budget has eased through 2026, giving back some of the share captured from the US through 2024 and 2025, but on the baseline comparison the UK still stands alone.

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US Quarterly and State Picture

The US recorded 43% of September production starts, pulling the Q3 2026 quarterly reading up to 39.8%, the strongest US quarter in our data in more than four years. Within the US, New York led September on 39%, ahead of California on 32% in the single-month read.

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SPI Starts Tracking Post Work

From this cycle, the SPI tracks where productions conduct their VFX, finishing and audio work, not just where they shoot. The reach is global and will extend across every region we already cover for production starts. In the first attributed cut, California anchors the picture, with the UK second; Rest of World gains share faster than any other region in our forward-looking view, taking in more of the post work that originates from the known shoot pipeline through 2026.

The Sohonet Screen Production Index tracks scripted, live-action productions entering principal photography each month from major studios and production companies across the US, UK, and Canada. A free two-page Snapshot is published monthly; the full Insight report, including regional breakdowns, studio analysis, and forward pipeline data, is available by subscription.

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